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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Monday 2023-11-13 · 20:15 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DEN
25.7%
BUF
74.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.140 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.079 EPA/dropback
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than BUF
  • DEN defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DEN

No players on the report.

BUF

Christian Benford CB Out Hamstring
Micah Hyde S Out Neck
Terrel Bernard LB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
BUF 22

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:42 FG DEN (12:42) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 07:23 TD DEN (7:23) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. QB pressure: S.Lawson. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught 8 yds. into end zone, along sideline. DEN 9 – BUF 0
  • Q2 03:41 TD BUF (3:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-N.Bonitto]. Caught 1 yd. into end zone. DEN 9 – BUF 6
  • Q2 00:49 FG DEN (:49) 16-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 12 – BUF 8
  • Q2 00:04 FG DEN (:04) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 15 – BUF 8
  • Q3 06:45 TD BUF (6:45) (No Huddle) 28-L.Murray left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 15 – BUF 14
  • Q4 05:10 TD DEN (5:10) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 33-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-T.Dodson]. DEN 21 – BUF 15
  • Q4 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 21 – BUF 21
  • Q4 00:04 FG DEN (:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 24 – BUF 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (12:42) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 18 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:37) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DEN 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 37%

    (12:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:22) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DEN 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 48 for 17 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (7:23) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. QB pressure: S.Lawson. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught 8 yds. into end zone, along sideline.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (:49) 16-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (:04) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to BUF 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-D.Harty to BUF 29 for 15 yards (0-J.Cooper). PENALTY on DEN-39-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 29.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 23%

    (11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Shakir [99-Z.Allen].

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 21%

    (2:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 42%

    (15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:35) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DEN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-M.Mims to DEN 46 for 27 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.