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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 22

Denver Broncos 12 – Buffalo Bills 8

What Actually Happened

(:04) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.53 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model