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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.52 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP