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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

GB
41.4%
PIT
58.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than GB
  • PIT defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.026 vs Jordan Love (GB) -0.016 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Doubtful Shoulder
Quay Walker LB Doubtful Groin
Kenny Clark DE Questionable Shoulder
Rudy Ford S Questionable Calf
Josh Myers C Questionable Knee
Yosuah Nijman T Questionable Back
Jon Runyan G Questionable Neck

PIT

Montravius Adams DT Out Ankle
Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 19
–
PIT 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:05 TD PIT (10:05) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 04:47 TD GB (4:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Watt]. GB 6 – PIT 7
  • Q2 14:17 TD PIT (14:17) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – PIT 13
  • Q2 08:12 FG PIT (8:12) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. GB 7 – PIT 17
  • Q2 04:21 TD GB (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – PIT 17
  • Q3 09:11 FG GB (9:11) 17-A.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 16 – PIT 17
  • Q3 03:07 FG GB (3:07) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 19 – PIT 17
  • Q3 01:09 FG PIT (1:09) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. GB 19 – PIT 20
  • Q4 05:17 FG PIT (5:17) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. GB 19 – PIT 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to PIT 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 46 for 14 yards (81-J.Deguara).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 57%

    (10:50) 30-J.Warren left end to GB 32 for 8 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 88%

    (8:12) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to GB 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-K.Nixon to GB 46 for 12 yards (42-J.Pierre).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 36%

    (2:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to PIT 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to GB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 57%

    (13:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones to PIT 33 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (9:11) 17-A.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:18) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to GB 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (3:07) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 77%

    (1:09) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to PIT 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 6 yards (22-R.Rochell, 81-J.Deguara).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (11:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to GB 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 9.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:32) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to PIT 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. GB-22-R.Rochell was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (5:17) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:09) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to GB 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-37-E.Riley.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 84%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 28-A.Dillon to PIT 16 for 11 yards (23-D.Kazee, 37-E.Riley).