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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to PIT 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP