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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 17-A.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model