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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP