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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model