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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to PIT 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 6 yards (22-R.Rochell, 81-J.Deguara).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model