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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to PIT 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. GB-22-R.Rochell was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.32 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model