4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP