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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 27

Green Bay Packers 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 28-A.Dillon to PIT 16 for 11 yards (23-D.Kazee, 37-E.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.59 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP