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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 87

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 69 yards to NE 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 87, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model