4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

5-5 HC Shane Steichen
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

2-8 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 09:30 ET Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt DE ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

IND
67.9%
NE
32.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NE offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): -0.102 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND crossing 6 time zone(s)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 25 18–32
–
NE 20 13–27
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

IND

Julius Brents CB Out Quadricep
Andrew Ogletree TE Out Foot
Josh Downs WR Questionable Knee
Zaire Franklin LB Questionable Knee
Alec Pierce WR Questionable Ankle

NE

Trenton Brown T Out Not injury related - personal matter
J.C. Jackson CB Out Not injury related - personal matter
DeVante Parker WR Out Concussion
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Hamstring
Myles Bryant CB Questionable Chest
Demario Douglas WR Questionable Ankle
Jack Jones CB Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Ankle
Matt Slater WR Questionable Ankle
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 10
–
NE 6

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:14 FG NE (8:14) 37-C.Ryland 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. IND 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 01:02 TD IND (1:02) 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – NE 3
  • Q4 12:47 FG NE (12:47) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. IND 7 – NE 6
  • Q4 08:58 FG IND (8:58) 7-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – NE 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (8:14) 37-C.Ryland 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (1:02) 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to IND 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 69 yards to NE 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to IND 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 6-I.McKenzie pushed ob at IND 29 for 11 yards (86-P.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to NE 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 51%

    (3:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 31%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 1-J.Downs to NE 39 for 12 yards (27-M.Bryant).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%

    (8:41) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 35%

    (5:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to NE 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:47) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (8:58) 7-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to NE 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 40 for 1 yard (94-Ty.Lewis).

    See the full breakdown →