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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to NE 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP