Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 65

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(1:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.70 EP
48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model