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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 1-J.Downs to NE 39 for 12 yards (27-M.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.97 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP