4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 17

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.19 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model