4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 7-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model