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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 19

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 37-C.Ryland 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model