Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 62

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(12:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to IND 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.85 EP
67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model