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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to DAL 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 42-D.Vaughn to DAL 46 for 11 yards (82-D.Bellinger; 19-I.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model