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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 17.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

NYG
16.8%
DAL
83.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.111 vs Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.572 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Tommy DeVito in place of Daniel Jones)
  • NYG offense: -0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYG 17
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYG

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Concussion
Evan Neal T Out Ankle
Deon Jackson RB Out Concussion
Mark Glowinski G Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Parris Campbell WR Questionable Hamstring
Jashaun Corbin RB Questionable Hamstring
Azeez Ojulari DE Questionable Ankle

DAL

Kavontae Turpin WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
DAL 49

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:44 TD DAL (3:44) 88-C.Lamb right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 08:52 TD DAL (8:52) 71-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DAL 13
  • Q2 03:52 TD DAL (3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DAL 20
  • Q2 00:22 TD DAL (:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DAL 27
  • Q3 08:11 TD NYG (8:11) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short right to 83-L.Cager for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – DAL 28
  • Q3 04:47 TD DAL (4:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 13-M.Gallup for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – DAL 34
  • Q3 01:33 TD DAL (1:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-58-B.Okereke, Illegal Contact, declined. NYG 7 – DAL 41
  • Q4 08:58 FG NYG (8:58) 46-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – DAL 42
  • Q4 02:19 TD DAL (2:19) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – DAL 48
  • Q4 00:10 TD NYG (:10) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 3-S.Shepard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – DAL 49

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (10:20) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to NYG 1 for 1 yard (51-A.Ojulari; 97-D.Lawrence).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-19-I.Simmons.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 33%

    (7:18) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 14 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 42-D.Vaughn to NYG 46 for -2 yards (30-D.Holmes).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:45) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (13:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to DAL 4 for no gain (95-J.Hankins, 90-D.Lawrence).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to DAL 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 42-D.Vaughn to DAL 46 for 11 yards (82-D.Bellinger; 19-I.Simmons).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to DAL 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-30-D.Holmes.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to DAL 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 42-D.Vaughn.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:43) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:53) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to DAL 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 42-D.Vaughn to DAL 9 for no gain (80-G.Olszewski).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%

    (8:58) 46-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 79%

    (5:22) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush right end to NYG 25 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:38) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 35-J.Corbin to NYG 37 for 4 yards (25-N.Wright).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (:26) 35-J.Corbin left guard to DAL 5 for 1 yard (58-M.Smith).