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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 65

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 42

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to DAL 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 42-D.Vaughn to DAL 9 for no gain (80-G.Olszewski).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model