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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 22

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 42

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 46-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model