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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 42 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(5:22) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush right end to NYG 25 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.65 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model