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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 95

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-19-I.Simmons.

The Three Options

GO -3.75 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 95, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model