4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 58

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model