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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 62

New York Jets 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 5-T.Morstead punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP