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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 20:20 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 35.5

Win Probability

NYJ
32.6%
LV
67.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.013 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.255 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYJ defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
LV 24
Projected margin: LV by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYJ

Chazz Surratt LB Out Ankle
Billy Turner T Out Finger
Duane Brown T Out Hip
Will McDonald DE Questionable Ankle

LV

Kolton Miller T Doubtful Shoulder
Jakob Johnson FB Questionable Concussion
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 12
–
LV 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:18 FG NYJ (10:18) 9-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – LV 0
  • Q1 06:18 FG LV (6:18) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NYJ 3 – LV 3
  • Q1 01:16 FG NYJ (1:16) 9-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 6 – LV 3
  • Q2 11:51 FG NYJ (11:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 9 – LV 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG LV (:03) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NYJ 9 – LV 6
  • Q3 02:40 FG LV (2:40) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NYJ 9 – LV 9
  • Q4 14:17 TD LV (14:17) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – LV 15
  • Q4 12:02 FG NYJ (12:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 12 – LV 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:33) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to NYJ 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 83%

    (10:18) 9-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 91%

    (6:18) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%

    (1:16) 9-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%

    (11:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:23) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to NYJ 19, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:26) 5-T.Morstead punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 31%

    (1:02) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

    (:03) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to LV 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 3-D.Carter to LV 31 for 6 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:56) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to NYJ 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 15 for 5 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LV 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 32 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 88%

    (4:43) 8-J.Jacobs right guard to NYJ 23 for 2 yards (1-A.Gardner; 57-C.Mosley).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (2:40) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:56) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LV 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 3-D.Carter to LV 47 for 11 yards (52-S.Eguavoen).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (12:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (8:31) 3-D.Carter left end to NYJ 41 for 15 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 3-J.Whitehead).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:00) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.