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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to NYJ 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 15 for 5 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model