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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 8-J.Jacobs right guard to NYJ 23 for 2 yards (1-A.Gardner; 57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.47 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model