4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model