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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 27

New York Jets 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model