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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 29

New York Jets 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 9-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model