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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 3-D.Carter left end to NYJ 41 for 15 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 3-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model