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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -2.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model