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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 35

New York Jets 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 9-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.25 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model