4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 5-J.Camarda punts 37 yards to TEN 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 33-E.Garror to TEN 24 for 6 yards (22-C.Edmonds; 97-Z.Triner).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.99 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP