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Tennessee Titans

3-6 HC Mike Vrabel
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-5 HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

TEN
41.2%
TB
58.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.003 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • TEN on 3 more days rest than TB

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20 13–27
–
TB 24 17–31
Projected margin: TB by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

TEN

Daniel Brunskill G Out Ankle
Treylon Burks WR Out Concussion
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Out Thumb
Nicholas Petit-Frere T Out Shoulder
Mike Brown S Out Ankle
Anthony Kendall CB Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Tannehill QB Questionable Ankle

TB

Josh Hayes CB Out Concussion
Matt Feiler G Doubtful Knee
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Concussion
Logan Hall DE Questionable Groin
Trey Palmer WR Questionable Neck
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Toe
Calijah Kancey DE Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 6
–
TB 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:38 FG TEN (8:38) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 05:49 TD TB (5:49) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Simmons]. TEN 3 – TB 6
  • Q3 10:45 FG TB (10:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TEN 3 – TB 10
  • Q3 02:53 TD TB (2:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – TB 16
  • Q4 12:57 FG TEN (12:57) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 6 – TB 17
  • Q4 07:05 FG TB (7:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TEN 6 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 20 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 92%

    (8:38) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to TB 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-39-M.Jackson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at TB 12.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-97-Z.Triner. 33-E.Garror pushed ob at TB 41 for 15 yards (41-K.Kieft).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 73%

    (12:44) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:22) 5-J.Camarda punts 37 yards to TEN 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 33-E.Garror to TEN 24 for 6 yards (22-C.Edmonds; 97-Z.Triner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:56) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to TB 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 15 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:50) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to TB 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 31 for 15 yards (57-L.Gifford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 53%

    (:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 34 yards to TEN 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (10:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (12:57) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (7:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 18 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%

    (5:03) 5-J.Camarda punts 18 yards to TEN 32, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins (35-J.Dean).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (2:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 35 yards to TEN 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 33-E.Garror ran ob at TEN 20 for 2 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:47) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins.

    See the full breakdown →