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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to TB 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 15 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.51 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model