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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 34 yards to TEN 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP