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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model