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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 5-J.Camarda punts 18 yards to TEN 32, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.37 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model