4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins (35-J.Dean).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model