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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -0.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model