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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 91

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-97-Z.Triner. 33-E.Garror pushed ob at TB 41 for 15 yards (41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.88 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model