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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model