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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

WAS
39.6%
SEA
60.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Geno Smith (SEA) -0.064 vs Sam Howell (WAS) -0.085 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

WAS

Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Toe

SEA

Anthony Bradford G Out Knee
Jordyn Brooks LB Questionable Hamstring
DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Shoulder
Kenny McIntosh RB Questionable Knee
Colby Parkinson TE Questionable Biceps

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 26
–
SEA 29

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:36 TD WAS (13:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 08:48 FG SEA (8:48) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. WAS 6 – SEA 3
  • Q2 12:11 FG WAS (12:11) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 9 – SEA 3
  • Q2 09:16 FG SEA (9:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. WAS 9 – SEA 6
  • Q2 01:50 FG SEA (1:50) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. WAS 9 – SEA 9
  • Q3 10:37 FG WAS (10:37) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 12 – SEA 9
  • Q3 09:56 TD SEA (9:56) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – SEA 15
  • Q4 12:19 FG SEA (12:19) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. WAS 12 – SEA 19
  • Q4 08:06 TD WAS (8:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 18 – SEA 19
  • Q4 03:50 TD SEA (3:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – SEA 25
  • Q4 01:02 TD WAS (1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 25 – SEA 26
  • Q4 00:03 FG SEA (:03) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. WAS 26 – SEA 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (8:48) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:43) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to SEA 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to WAS 27, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 1 yard (20-J.Love).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (12:11) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 88%

    (9:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:38) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to SEA 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 36 for 5 yards (34-C.Holmes).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to WAS 19, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:57) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to SEA 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (1:50) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:05) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-20-J.Martin.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 30 for 8 yards (32-Je.Reed; 44-N.Bellore).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 81%

    (10:37) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%

    (7:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:12) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 19 for 9 yards (87-J.Bates, 20-J.Martin).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 67%

    (13:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard to WAS 29 for 7 yards (31-K.Curl).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (12:19) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 50%

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 35 for 8 yards (22-T.Brown).