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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to WAS 19, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model